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the year's market trends
2010 Market TrendsFuel efficiency is in the spotlight as the U.S. auto industry continues its struggle out of the tailspin that began in 2008. New vehicles sales barely surpassed 10 million units in the 2009 calendar year, down over 20 percent from 2008 and 33 percent from 2007 sales. As sales inch back up, consumers’ interest in miles per gallon remains strong. In early 2010, fuel prices are once again well past the $2.50-per-gallon mark, and there is a widespread expectation that economic recovery will only push prices higher. Reinforcing the trend is the Obama Administration’s announcement of stricter fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards, effective beginning in model year 2012. The proposed standards call for an average fleet-wide fuel economy of 34.1 miles per gallon by 2016, a 36 percent increase from 2009 standards. Manufacturers are working on a variety of new technologies to ensure they will be able to comply. While forthcoming electric-drive vehicles capture automotive headlines, manufacturers are making more subtle technological improvements to their current offerings of hybrids and conventional vehicles. Toyota’s 2010 Prius, the most efficient gasoline-powered vehicle and number two on ACEEE’s “Greenest” list, shows a 3-mile-per gallon increase in fuel economy, to 51 city / 48 highway. Toyota attributes the gains to an increase in engine size — which allows the engine to operate at lower rpm on the highway, together with a new exhaust gas recirculation system, an electric water pump, a lower coefficient of drag, and lightweighting of several parts, though overall vehicle weight has increased in the bargain. The new Prius also features LED low-beams and taillights, a more efficient A/C system, and solar panels on the optional moon roof. New hybrid offerings — the Honda Insight and the Ford Fusion/Mercury Milan — broke into the year’s top twelve, and several more are slated for arrival later in the year. The 2010 Ford Fusion appears not only in hybrid form but also as the Fusion S, a conventional model achieving a 17 percent boost in fuel economy over last year’s 4-cylinder automatic using variable cam timing and a six-speed transmission. Ford also added to its roster of vehicles with EcoBoost, an engine package combining turbocharging with direct injection. But while the technology has been touted as offering fuel economy gains up to 20 percent, this year’s Flex and Taurus models use Ecoboost to achieve V8 performance with a V6 engine and leave fuel economy unchanged. The Lincoln MKS with Ecoboost does gain two miles per gallon on the highway and one in the city, however. Other Ford fuel-saving tweaks include a Lincoln MKT featuring a liftgate lightened 40 percent through the use of magnesium and aluminum instead of steel, and electric power steering to replace a hydraulic pump. More generally, the use of engine refinements such as variable-valve timing continues to rise, and lightweight materials, better aerodynamics, and improved transmissions are all experiencing flurries of activity that demonstrate the large potential still remaining to reduce the fuel consumption of conventional vehicles without compromise in consumer appeal. Yet, in the big picture, these new technologies are not yet moving the needle perceptibly on environmental performance. Indeed, the average Green Score stayed level this year at 32. Small Is Beautiful? The small car is said to be making a comeback in the U.S., as the high gas prices of 2008 remain on the minds of American consumers, reinforced by difficult economic times that make the cost of a fill-up a major concern for many drivers. Domestic companies that effectively ceded the compact car market to foreign manufacturers decades ago are introducing small models as quickly as they can, with close attention to quality and amenity updates. Both Ford and GM propose to double their car production in 2010, and crossovers — small SUVs built on car platforms — continue to grow in popularity and attract new offerings. Yet here, too, talk of change precedes clear sales trends. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently estimated that small cars’ share of the market was lower in 2009 than in 2006, while large cars’ share has increased. Light trucks’ market share also rose slightly over the same period. Electric Drive Much of the attention on clean vehicles this year is focused on the prospect of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and electric drive vehicles in general. In March 2009, President Obama pledged to have 1 million PHEVs on the road by 2015. This announcement was quickly followed by a suite of federal programs to promote electric vehicles through policies to support research and development, battery manufacturing, and deployment. Manufacturers plan to take advantage of such incentives in particular to cover the high cost of battery production and, in effect, reduce the upfront cost of PHEVs. Eagerly anticipated additions to the electric vehicle fleet in 2010 are the Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan Leaf. Both models are expected to hit the market at the end of the year, with manufacturers predicting sales of 10,000 or more in the first model year. Toyota will follow with a plug-in Prius in 2011, featuring the manufacturer’s first lithium-ion battery. Plug-in incentives of up to $7,500 are designed to meet consumers more than half way in covering incremental costs, largely due to still-pricey battery packs. Diesels Diesel vehicles are typically more fuel-efficient than their traditional gasoline counterparts. However, until recently, diesel engines also emitted substantially higher levels of particulates and NOx than gasoline vehicles and consequently received low Green Scores. The arrival last year of “clean” diesel technology in the United States means that diesel vehicles are now available nationwide and are clean enough to meet the federal Tier 2 bin 5 standard. However, despite the initial excitement about the arrival of these vehicles in the United States, diesels have not found smooth sailing here. Technologies such as particulate filters, NOx adsorbers, and selective catalytic reduction to achieve the Holy Grail of Tier 2 bin 5 emissions certification have come at a considerable price, with diesels costing from $2,000 to $5,000 more than their gasoline counterparts. Add to that continuing high diesel prices — averaging 50 cents per gallon above gasoline in 2009 — and it’s been a tough sell to date. A number of manufacturers have scaled back production plans for diesel-powered vehicles in response to poor sales and declining economic conditions. European manufacturers have continued to add diesel configurations to their U.S. offerings, however, as most development costs have already been sunk for their diesel-dominated home market. Volkswagen continues to utilize its clean diesel technology in a variety of vehicles. In addition to the Jetta and Jetta Sportwagen TDI introduced last year, this year’s diesels include the Golf and Touareg, both certified as “clean diesels” to Tier 2 bin 5 standards and available nationwide. Likewise, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have re-issued their diesel-powered vehicles as 2010 models. New to the market this year are the Audi Q7 SUV and the A3 sedan, built on the same urea injection diesel technology as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz clean diesels. These vehicles continue to perform well on ACEEE’s annual rankings. The Volkswagen Jetta TDI and Jetta Sportwagen TDI once again missed a spot on the “Greenest” list this year by a hair. Greener Choices for Everyone When it comes to buying a new vehicle, the most environment-friendly step you can take is simple: first evaluate your needs and your budget, then look for the models with the greenest scores among the cars and trucks that meet your needs and fit your budget. Even though some of our top ratings go to natural gas-powered or hybrid vehicles, every class has nationally available gasoline vehicles that score significantly better than average. Buying green does more than fulfill your own personal commitment to protect the environment. Each greener choice by an individual consumer, of course, reduces pollution directly. But the market is also a give-and-take between consumers and manufacturers. As more and more consumers adopt the notion of buying green, automakers will increasingly look at environmentally friendly design as an opportunity, not just an obligation. Such feedback will motivate car companies to make further investments in improved technology, so that an expanded number of green cars and trucks will be available in the years ahead. A number of new introductions to the American vehicle market make an appearance on the 2010 “Greenest” list. The Honda Insight is joined by the Ford’s new Fusion Hybrid and Mercury Milan Hybrid in the 6th spot and the 2010 Hyundai Accent Blue in the 11th spot. Domestic manufacturers keep a foothold in the annual “Greenest” list after being shut out entirely as recently as 2007. The Ford Motor Company’s newest hybrids, the Ford Fusion Hybrid and the Mercury Milan Hybrid, immediately claim the 6th position on the list, outperforming vehicles such as the Toyota Yaris, Mini Cooper, and the Nissan Altima Hybrid. GM’s Chevrolet Cobalt XFE and Pontiac G5 XFE, certified at PZEV / Tier 2 bin 5 rank 10th, pushed two spots down the list from their 2009 position by the entrance of the Honda Insight and Ford hybrids. Narrowly missing out on a spot on the “Greenest” list are the Toyota Camry Hybrid, the Lexus HS 250H, Kia Rio, and the Chevrolet Aveo, all of which score well but face increasing competition from a growing fleet of highly efficient vehicles.
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Meanest Vehicles for the Environment in 2010 The Year's Market Trends |